# normal mafia



## I liek Squirtles (Feb 21, 2018)

The citizens of Anytown go to bed, content with the normalcy of their lives. A shadow looms over the city, though, threatening to destroy all they hold dear...

*Night 0 begins. 48 hours for night actions.*

(Role PMs are all out! Any questions, don't hesitate to PM!)


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## I liek Squirtles (Feb 23, 2018)

The citizens wake up to another seemingly normal day. However, the newspapers speak of tragedy...

*Flora is dead. She was Town.

48 hours for discussion.* (probably a little more since it's late.)


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## Zero Moment (Feb 23, 2018)

Flora isn't struck out on the playersheet btw.


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## sanderidge (Feb 23, 2018)

gentle wheeze. mostly posting to check in. hopefully i will be in my mind soon.


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## I liek Squirtles (Feb 23, 2018)

[[Sorry abou that, guys! Everything has been duly fixed.]]


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## RedneckPhoenix (Feb 23, 2018)

roleclaim time!

...


i don't have one. i'm just a poor lil' townie.


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## Gzhoom (Feb 23, 2018)

I’d also like to claim Town


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## Keldeo (Feb 23, 2018)

More when I’m not on my phone, but I don’t think people should be claiming today.


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## Stryke (Feb 24, 2018)

I alive


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## Keldeo (Feb 24, 2018)

Okay, so to elaborate, I don't think claiming on d1 with this setup benefits town at all, and inviting claims is kind of an anti-town thing to do. A vanilla townie claim is basically just narrowing down the pool of people who could potentially be the doctor or cop for the mafia to kill. We are also not going to get much out of a cop claim today unless they got a scum result - if they inspected a townie, they can basically only clear themself and that person out of a presumably 6:3 town:mafia ratio today, which leaves us with a revealed power role and still-worse-than-even odds for a random lynch, so that's not very helpful either. 

I don't really know, I guess it kind of just rubs me the wrong way to start your first post on d1 with roleclaiming when it's both clearly not beneficial for town and pretty much indistinguishable from a mafia fishing for vanilla claims - especially when townie is a 100% safe thing for a mafia to claim in this setup because there are confirmed to be multiple townies. I think the tone of RedneckPhoenix's post also seems a little different from his opening in ASB Halloween Mafia? To my knowledge there isn't a recent game here with him as scum so there's nothing to compare for the other side of things, though. 

Man, I'm probably succumbing to tunnel vision here in extrapolating off just one post, but half the day is gone already and there's not really anything else to talk about (besides the choice of night kill target, I guess, but mafia could have just randomized or something to foil any analysis of that so I don't know if that's actually going to be productive.) I feel like since the numbers are so tight this game, any way to get our odds of lynching scum above random is a boon, even when it's just because on the sliding scale of "this comes from a scum mindset" to "this comes from a town mindset", that post feels a little more on the scummy side.


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## kyeugh (Feb 24, 2018)

i'll be honest, i'm not sure i agree.  this early in the game i think we ought to give him the benefit of the doubt here— i'm assuming, at least, that his thought process there was "i don't have an important role, so i'm not putting myself in danger" without much regard to the narrowing of the pool of potential useful role-holders.  at any rate all he did was claim town— at this point i don't think there's _nearly_ enough information to begin forming any kind of meaningful conclusions about people's alignments, as pleasant as it would be otherwise.

while it's true that mafia could easily make the same claim with minimal repercussion, i don't really believe it's right to assume that someone is any more likely to be mafia just because they claimed town.  at least for the time being, i don't think we should lean one way or another with his alignment— of course, that also means that he isn't certainly cleared as town, either.

that said, i agree that claiming isn't really beneficial right now, and that we should all keep our mouths shut on the matter so as not to jeopardise important roles.  you're correct in saying that our limited numbers mean that we need to win more quickly, but i don't think phoenix's claim really suggests anything and i'm not convinced it really _does_ put our odds of randomly lynching scum above, well, random.  could just be me, but i think that until we have something a little more substantial, lynching really is just a stab in the dark, which is way too high-stakes to be reasonable this early in a game with so few people.


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## Keldeo (Feb 25, 2018)

Yeah, that makes sense. Although I still feel like it's sort of an "unsafe" thought process for a game where we really have to play it safe (unsafe is probably not the right word there, but I mean not thinking about the consequences of that claim) I agree that that post could definitely come from either mafia or town, and we do have enough of a numbers advantage over mafia to give him the benefit of the doubt for today. 

To be honest I was kind of hoping that after I posted, RedneckPhoenix would then reply to that and give me more information to analyze and see whether he's actually scum or town, but he just... didn't post a response, so that didn't really pan out. Actually, I guess the fact that you replied tells me that he's probably more likely to be scum if you're scum, because I think if he's town then an opportunistic mafia would just let me wrongfully push him and get town to self-destruct since we can't actually afford that many mislynches. But also (just going off of one post, again, bleh) I kind of think you're more likely to be town than scum based on the tone of that post and the fact that you did step up and keep the game active, so that probably won't end up being a valuable observation since town you could defend either town him or scum him. 



> i don't really believe it's right to assume that someone is any more likely to be mafia just because they claimed town.


I kind of disagree with this, though. I think that especially this early, mafia are much more likely to claim vanilla town than cop or doctor given this setup, since like you said it's the only claim with minimal repercussions - it's just such a low-risk claim for a mafia to make that I can't see anyone except a really bold mafia claiming otherwise. (And even though I haven't seen most of the people in this game play as scum, I'd guess that that label only really applies to a handful of people?) Like, this is anecdotal but on the last day of Two Mafia Mafia, one of the two living mafia claimed vanilla town and the other claimed a cop for a faction that had been eliminated, which is essentially vanilla at that point. So if we end up with more townie claims than we should, obviously there's going to be actual vanilla townies in that group, but I think there's definitely going to be at least one or two mafia in there as well.

Actually, RedneckPhoenix/anyone else, what do you think of the reasoning of my earlier post? I'd also like people's thoughts on how we should proceed on d2 since it doesn't seem like we have enough information to act on today, unless someone who hasn't posted yet does have something substantive.


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## Keldeo (Feb 25, 2018)

Or even if (general you) you don’t have an opinion on anything that’s been posted, the fact that you don’t have an opinion is still something that could potentially be useful to say  before the phase ends anyway? Since it gives us an idea of what you were thinking right now, which I think is important to consider when evaluating your future posts.


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## sanderidge (Feb 25, 2018)

Keldeo said:


> Or even if (general you) you don’t have an opinion on anything that’s been posted, the fact that you don’t have an opinion is still something that could potentially be useful to say  before the phase ends anyway? Since it gives us an idea of what you were thinking right now, which I think is important to consider when evaluating your future posts.


yay, incentive to post! 

mostly i was feeling sketchy about the claim thing as i read it, but everything i'd wanted to say had already really been said by the time i saw it. i still don't really feel like actually thinking about the Numbers mafia-wise, but this early with no actual info? seems pretty bad for town. 

also, lynch or no lynch today? i feel like it would be a bad idea to do one, especially since we'd probably be going blind. thoughts?


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## Zero Moment (Feb 25, 2018)

Well, it's currently (likely) 3 Mafia vs 6 Town. Assuming mislynch and no heal tonight, tomorrow would see it as 3 Mafia vs 4 Town. Not really a good situation to be in. Perhaps a randylynch tomorrow, if there's nothing from the cop.


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## RedneckPhoenix (Feb 25, 2018)

i didn't mean "hey, everyone roleclaim" i more meant "hey! I'm gonna roleclaim my super important role, but not really because i'm vanilla" for, like, comedic purposes? I guess? fuck i don't know. anyways, it seems paranoid to assume something based on text saying the exact opposite, but having seen mafia games before and probably being one of the most paranoid people on the planet, it seems sensible to me.


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## Keldeo (Feb 25, 2018)

I mean, all you said was "roleclaim time!" and then your claim, which I think could reasonably be taken either as "everyone should roleclaim, follow me!" or as "I'm roleclaiming in a funny way!", and in the post right after, Gzhoom also "claimed" (maybe facetiously? idk.) So I don't think it's really misconstruing your words to believe that you had meant the former? (I also don't have the best track record for not misinterpreting something random d1, haha.) But thank you for clarifying that you meant the latter - I still don't think claiming d1 is a good idea, even claiming vanilla townie, and I'm probably going to be a little more critical in future in light of that, but I guess it happened and we can't change that.

I agree abstaining today is probably best unless effervesce or Butterfree has something to say? I'm pretty sure abstain -> random lynch is the optimal way to maximize our chances of hitting scum, assuming no cop results or scumslips (well, I need to work out the odds of abstain -> abstain -> random lynch in comparison, but they're both probably better than just random lynching today.)


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## Butterfree (Feb 25, 2018)

I don't have any useful information or anything, no. Abstaining for today and then lynching at random tomorrow unless we get a good lead sounds good to me; guess I'll put in a formal vote to *abstain*?


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## kyeugh (Feb 25, 2018)

i agree, random lynching seems like a good idea… tomorrow. but yeah, for today i think it’s best to *abstain*.


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## Zero Moment (Feb 25, 2018)

*Abstain.*


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## sanderidge (Feb 25, 2018)

*abstain* then!


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## I liek Squirtles (Feb 25, 2018)

Despite the tragedy, a little discussion took place. Everyone went back home a little afraid at what this night might hide...

*No one has died. 48 hours for night actions.*


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## I liek Squirtles (Feb 26, 2018)

Another day dawns, another body lays sprawled in the town square...

*Zero Moment is dead. He was Town.

48 hours for discussion.*


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## Keldeo (Feb 26, 2018)

Hmm. Does anyone have any information?

We should probably keep in mind the numbers - with 8 people alive, if there are 3 mafia, it could already be 5:3, which is actually pretty close. So I think we should be treating this phase more like mid-game or even almost end-game than like, d1 2.0, if that makes sense.


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## kyeugh (Feb 27, 2018)

i have nothing to report, and it doesn't seem like anyone else does either?  the day is nearly half up and we don't really have time to waste, here, so if no one's going to say anything perhaps it'd be more useful to begin talking about lynching?

correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe the only person who hasn't spoken at all yet is effervesce.  idk if that necessarily indicates that she's mafia, though, since not talking at all seems obviously scummy and i feel like scum would probably speak up at _least_ once so as to dispel those suspicions, but who knows.  maybe she's mafia, maybe she's really busy.  i'd be interested in hearing what she has to say.

barring that, i am also somewhat suspicious of Stryke, a he's has only come in exactly once, to remind us that he wasn't lynched.

any other suspicions?  literally anything is better than what we have, so be afraid to speak up.


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## kyeugh (Feb 27, 2018)

Nira said:


> so be afraid to speak up.


lol.  this is not what i meant


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## Stryke (Feb 27, 2018)

I'm not mafia, for the record. Of course, all you have is my word, which counts for diddly squat in mafia, but I thought I should say it anyway. And I haven't said anything because I have nothing relevant or important to say... Until now, at least.


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## Butterfree (Feb 27, 2018)

Yeah, I agree with Nira; we should be going for a lynch of possible scum before it's too late.

effervesce sounds like a reasonable first choice, unless she has something to say.


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## Keldeo (Feb 28, 2018)

I'm not a big fan of Stryke's response to Nira, since it and the previous post are pretty much posts that anyone could make, which doesn't really help us figure out your alignment. Like, when you did that on d1, sure, it's d1 and half the game did, but it's d2 now and we are in a pretty bad position if we abstain today so really anything you have to say would help. Meanwhile I'm liking Nira's discussion starting because it's not posts that anyone could make - they're posting their opinion and thoughts about the game, and I think that's easier to do as town because it gets progressively harder to fake as mafia, which is part of why discussion benefits the town and lurking is kind of anti-town. 

I'm also kind of wondering why Nira didn't mention Gzhoom, whose single post was similarly contentless to Stryke's d1 post, along with Stryke... That one post is pretty forgettable so that's understandable, but now that I'm looking back at that post of Gzhoom's it's actually making me a little suspicious of him, although I guess he and Stryke both tend to actively lurk in the first few days. I'm also still kind of side-eyeing RedneckPhoenix because of that d1 claim, but his response felt better so I think he's still someone to look at, just in future days so long as he doesn't lurk. (I will be super mad at myself if he's actually scum here and we let him go because I didn't push him hard enough, but.)

re: effervesce, if she's scum, would her teammates not prod her to go reply to Nira? But it would also make sense for scum effervesce's teammates to want to wait and see rather than getting too defensive since Nira didn't actually vote her, and so there wasn't an immediate threat upon their post. And town effervesce has no reason to be not posting in her own defense, either... but I think I'm kind of thinking in circles here.


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## sanderidge (Feb 28, 2018)

if we're going to be an active town, i agree that it seems like a good idea to Do Something, and i don't have any objections against lynching effervesce since it seems they haven't spoken at all despite having been online. i wonder when we'll get some info, though? stumbling around in this sort of vague dark makes me nervous.


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## sanderidge (Feb 28, 2018)

Keldeo said:


> I'm also kind of wondering why Nira didn't mention Gzhoom, whose single post was similarly contentless to Stryke's d1 post, along with Stryke...


this is a good point. i also forgot where i was going with this, but i do remember i thought this was a good point.


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## I liek Squirtles (Feb 28, 2018)

*24-hour extension* since there's still some discussion.


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## kyeugh (Feb 28, 2018)

Keldeo said:


> I'm also kind of wondering why Nira didn't mention Gzhoom, whose single post was similarly contentless to Stryke's d1 post, along with Stryke... That one post is pretty forgettable so that's understandable, but now that I'm looking back at that post of Gzhoom's it's actually making me a little suspicious of him, although I guess he and Stryke both tend to actively lurk in the first few days.


i actually forgot about it, haha.  i guess i mentally swept it under the rug because i was thinking of it as a pair with the whole Phoenix thing, but yeah.  bit suspicious there, too.  i'd be interesting in hearing his defence.





Keldeo said:


> I'm also still kind of side-eyeing RedneckPhoenix because of that d1 claim, but his response felt better so I think he's still someone to look at, just in future days so long as he doesn't lurk. (I will be super mad at myself if he's actually scum here and we let him go because I didn't push him hard enough, but.)


hahaha.  well, you might be right, but at any rate i don't think we should go for him yet either, yeah.  he's been responsive, at least, which is more than can be said of the others i'm suspicious of.





Keldeo said:


> re: effervesce, if she's scum, would her teammates not prod her to go reply to Nira? But it would also make sense for scum effervesce's teammates to want to wait and see rather than getting too defensive since Nira didn't actually vote her, and so there wasn't an immediate threat upon their post. And town effervesce has no reason to be not posting in her own defense, either... but I think I'm kind of thinking in circles here.


i was thinking in the same circles.  to solve the problem tentatively, i'm going to formally vote to lynch *effervesce*.  at the very least that should prompt her to speak, and if not, well.  them's the breaks.


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## Stryke (Feb 28, 2018)

I'm not sure what you want me to say; I have literally no information on anyone or anything right now, which I guess leaves my thoughts on everything. First off, I'm a bit opposed to lynching effervesce, considering they haven't been on since the 26th, so they never would have been able to see Niras original post accusing them or give a proper defense. Sure, you could make the case that they were inactive before then, but it was Day 1; nothing was getting done, so just saying something for the sake of saying something might not have seemed all that important. But really, all of you barring Phoenix and Ghzoom have been doing mafia for waaaaaay longer than I have, so unless I seriously disagree with your line of thinking, I tend to just stay quiet and leave the discussion to the people who have a better idea of what they're doing.


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## Gzhoom (Feb 28, 2018)

Nira said:


> i actually forgot about it, haha.  i guess i mentally swept it under the rug because i was thinking of it as a pair with the whole Phoenix thing, but yeah.  bit suspicious there, too.  i'd be interesting in hearing his defence.hahaha.


I wish I had something more pertinent to the game to disclose as a defense here, but the big reason I haven’t been saying much is just because college. We’re closing in on midterms, and since I didn’t get Cop or anything that can grab information, I can’t really contribute much during night actions or provide any information during the day. Like Stryke said as well, seeing users like Keldeo providing insightful analyses on tone and speech leaves me wondering what I could really offer. I understand wanting to hear from everyone, hoping to catch scum slipping up or at least getting _some_ basis for choosing a lynch target, but anything I say is just going to be a rehash of what someone else has undoubtedly already pointed out.

A rehash that I’ll be willing to provide more readily from now on, in order to help progress the game, but a rehash, nonetheless.


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## RedneckPhoenix (Feb 28, 2018)

Still have no info. Whoopdeedoo.


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## Keldeo (Feb 28, 2018)

Stryke said:
			
		

> I'm a bit opposed to lynching effervesce, considering they haven't been on since the 26th, so they never would have been able to see Niras original post accusing them or give a proper defense.


Oh, that's a good point - I actually thought effervesce had been online to see Nira's post, but upon rechecking she hasn't. Though I still think her d1 absence is kind of worrying, I would like to hear if she has anything to say especially since she seems to not have seen Nira's post. 

ILS, could we get an extension for a little bit longer or until effervesce is online and has time to post?


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## Keldeo (Mar 1, 2018)

I also don't think we should be holding our breath for someone to pop in with any solid information, since most of the people alive now probably don't have any info either - the only people in this setup who have actual info are the cop (who seems to either be unable or unwilling to come forward today) and the mafia (who are pretending like they don't have any info, because they're the mafia.) So because we can't count on having mechanical information, I think we kind of do have to focus on behavioral stuff, like the fact that effervesce hasn't posted despite being online at the start of the day today.


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## I liek Squirtles (Mar 1, 2018)

*24 hour extension.*


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## mewtini (Mar 1, 2018)

hello i haven't logged into tcodf because i am stupid

partly because i know very little (along with probably everyone else, i guess) and partly because i barely remember how to play mafia, i'm actually an *abstain* voter


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## mewtini (Mar 1, 2018)

also, upon a really cursory reading of this thread (which i have absolutely let go on too long without me seeing it, ever, sorry!) i'm slightly suspicious of stryke's posts, also - not so much because of the scarcity of his posts (because that would fuck me, too) but because they seem more defensive than i'd like and for reasons already outlined.


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## kyeugh (Mar 1, 2018)

Keldeo said:


> I also don't think we should be holding our breath for someone to pop in with any solid information, since most of the people alive now probably don't have any info either - the only people in this setup who have actual info are the cop (who seems to either be unable or unwilling to come forward today) and the mafia (who are pretending like they don't have any info, because they're the mafia.) So because we can't count on having mechanical information, I think we kind of do have to focus on behavioral stuff, like the fact that effervesce hasn't posted despite being online at the start of the day today.


i agree with this, except for the part about mewtini since she's replied by now so obviously that's moot.  but yeah.  at the moment i'm going to go ahead and concur with mewtini in that Stryke has been a bit over-defensive, and that's about as much lead as we can really expect to get atm.  i'm going to tentatively withdraw my vote against mewtini, and vote for *Stryke* just to get the ball rolling there.  one part of me is hesitant because i think he really might just be innocent and expressing his frustration with the accusations somewhat poorly, but.  it's basically all we have to roll with right now, so i suppose that's just how it's going to have to be, even if the lead is weak.  that said, i don't think it's a very good idea to abstain at all, and i would advise against doing it tbh.  we're very strapped for time here and i'm opposed to doing Nothing for much longer.


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## mewtini (Mar 1, 2018)

damn ... actually, agree with a *stryke* vote. didn't want to seem overzealous in going for someone else, esp because i had only just poked my head in here, but from looking over things i'm also thinking that inactivity might not be great.

kind of reluctant to vote for him because i'm also not all that confident that he's actually scum but :(


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## Stryke (Mar 1, 2018)

Hm. That's the way the cookie crumbles, I suppose.
* abstain*


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## RedneckPhoenix (Mar 1, 2018)

no hard feelings, *Stryke*


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## kyeugh (Mar 1, 2018)

psh... sorry, kid... that's just the way the cookie crumbles...


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## Butterfree (Mar 2, 2018)

*Stryke* sounds good.


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## Stryke (Mar 2, 2018)

Nira said:


> psh... sorry, kid... that's just the way the cookie crumbles...


*Teleports behind you*


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## sanderidge (Mar 2, 2018)

i'll go with the bandwagon then. one *stryke* & he's out, i guess.


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## I liek Squirtles (Mar 2, 2018)

After much deliberation, the citizens single one amongst them to suffer a terrible fate...

*Stryke was lynched. He was Town.
48 hours for night actions.*


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## mewtini (Mar 2, 2018)

oops


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## I liek Squirtles (Mar 4, 2018)

A grim day rises on Anytown; another citizen's body lay lifeless in the square, but a much more ominous portent belies it...

*RedneckPhoenix has died. He was Town.
The Mafia are 50% of the living players. The Mafia win!*

Thanks for playing, everyone! The setup is a bit too mafia-heavy, it seems; it also doesn't help that the mafia offed both power roles in a row. (Also, as you'll see in the PMs, I screwed up and worded the mafia wincon badly, so sorry about that. It didn't matter in the end since all Town members alive were Townies)



Spoiler: Player Roles



1.	RedneckPhoenix – Townie
2.	Keldeo – Mafia 
3.	Gzhoom – Mafia
4.	Flora – Doctor 
5.	Zero Moment – Cop 
6.	Stryke – Townie
7.	sanderidge – Townie 
8.	Nira – Townie 
9.	effervesce – Townie
10.	Butterfree – Mafia





Spoiler:  Action Log



N0-
Zero Moment inspects Butterfree, flips Mafia.
Flora heals Keldeo.
Mafia (Keldeo) kills Flora.

D1
No one is lynched.

N1-
ZM inspects Keldeo, flips Mafia.
Mafia (Keldeo) kills Zero Moment.

D2-
Stryke is lynched. 

N2-
Mafia (Keldeo) kills RedneckPhoenix. Mafia win!



[hide = Role PMs]1.	Mafia
You are a *Mafiosi*. Along with [name] and [name], you seek to eliminate the Town. One of you may send in a factional kill per night. You win when the Mafia makes up 50% or more of living players.
2.	Doctor
You are the *Doctor*. Each night, you may heal one person and save them from the Mafia’s clutches. You win when the Mafia are eliminated.
3.	Cop
You are the *Cop*. Each night, you may inspect one person to discover their alignment. You win when the Mafia are eliminated.
4.	Townie
You are a *Townie*. You have no night action. You win when the Mafia are eliminated. [/hide]


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## I liek Squirtles (Mar 4, 2018)

Whoops, sorry about borking the hide tag. Muscle memory from spacing everything in Matlab and such.


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## kyeugh (Mar 4, 2018)

gdi keldeo, i would have never suspected you... but i guess that's the point.  very well played!  i suspected butterfree since she was just going with the flow and not doing much else, but didn't have anything solid to put forward.  damn.

you guys sure had some crazy luck (at least, i assume it was luck?) knocking out the power roles right away like that.  all in all it was a pretty fun game given its length!  i had a lot of fun.


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## RedneckPhoenix (Mar 4, 2018)

_rude_


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## RedneckPhoenix (Mar 4, 2018)

this feeling is comparable to that of having a bucket placed on your head and then pushed down a hill on a longboard


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## Zero Moment (Mar 4, 2018)

Having two Mafia inspection results in a row and then immediately dying is fun.


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## mewtini (Mar 5, 2018)

Zero Moment said:


> Having two Mafia inspection results in a row and then immediately dying is fun.


poor zm ... :(


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## sanderidge (Mar 5, 2018)

those were some wild hijinks there


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## Keldeo (Mar 6, 2018)

Oh man, sorry for killing you ZM :( This game would've gone really differently if not for that nightkill luck, huh.


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